Air conditioning market in France 2026: the key figures behind a booming market
The Proclimo Team
24 Jul 2026 - 06 min read
The summer of 2026 marks a historic turning point for the French air conditioning market. After two heatwave summers and the generalisation of reversible heat pumps, France is finally catching up with its Mediterranean lag: according to the ClubTravaux barometer published in July 2026, installation requests jumped +42% year-on-year, with a striking catch-up effect in the major metropolitan areas — including Île-de-France, where Proclimo operates daily. Here is a summary of the figures you need to know to understand the market, anticipate lead times, and make the right choices before installing your air conditioning.
How many French households are equipped today?
28% of houses, 13% of apartments: a narrowing gap
In the first half of 2026, 28% of single-family homes in France are equipped with at least one air conditioning unit (Hello Watt data, Insee / ADEME synthesis). The figure rises to 40-45% in the Mediterranean diagonal and drops to 15-20% in the north of France. Apartments lag behind with 13.4% of equipment, a gap explained by the constraints of co-ownership: vote in general assembly, authorisation from the property manager, location of the outdoor unit on the facade or roof, and acoustic constraints governed by the "neighbourhood noise" decree.
The south leads, but Île-de-France is accelerating
The departmental ranking remains largely Mediterranean, but the gap is narrowing with Île-de-France and the Rhône valley, hit by repeated heatwaves:
| Department | Air conditioning equipment rate (2026) |
|---|---|
| Pyrénées-Orientales | 67% |
| Gard | 66% |
| Var | 64% |
| Vaucluse | 64% |
| Hérault | 62% |
| Bouches-du-Rhône | 55% |
| Rhône (Lyon metropolitan area) | 38% |
| Île-de-France (Paris + inner suburbs + outer suburbs) | 24% |
Paris and its inner suburbs are gaining on average +3 to +4 points per year since 2022, an unprecedented pace. In practice, we now see Haussmann-style buildings equipped with wall-mounted splits on the facade, as in the south for 20 years.
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RTE 2030-2035 projection: the share of air-conditioned dwellings in France should rise from 25% in 2026 to 50% in 2030-2035, with a total reversible heat pump fleet rising from 900,000 to more than 2 million units. The trajectory is the same across southern Europe.
Demand is exploding: +42% in one year
ClubTravaux barometer figures (July 2026)
The ClubTravaux renovation barometer, published on 8 July 2026 on the basis of more than 1.2 million quote requests processed between July 2025 and June 2026, documents an unprecedented acceleration:
- +42% in requests for air conditioning installation year-on-year (July 2025 → June 2026).
- +96% in 2025 compared to 2024, itself a record year.
- +612% in sales in mass retail over the week of 8 to 14 June 2026 (heatwave peak, NielsenIQ data).
- x 4 installation requests in May 2026 compared to May 2025.
This dynamic is explained by the convergence of three factors: (1) the succession of heatwaves, (2) the technological maturity of reversible heat pumps, and (3) the arrival of reduced VAT on high-performance reversible air conditioners, which significantly lowers the installation cost.
A historic shift: reversible AC overtakes air-to-water heat pumps
In 2025, for the first time, sales of reversible air conditioners (air-to-air heat pumps) overtook those of air-to-water heat pumps in new builds and renovations. The air-to-air heat pump is cheaper to buy (€1,500 to €5,000 less than an air-to-water), installs in a day, and halves the electricity bill in summer as in winter. For a household that is not replacing a boiler, it is often the best choice — provided the unit is properly sized and the installation is done carefully.
Who is buying? The three 2026 profiles
1. The owner of a single-family home in the south
The historical first buyer, the villa owner in the Mediterranean arc equips their home with a multi-split to cool 3 to 5 rooms. Average budget: €8,000 to €12,000 for 4 splits installed. Aids mobilised: CEE prime, 5.5% VAT when the application decree is published.
2. The Île-de-France resident fitting out their apartment
Second fastest-growing profile, the Parisian owner or tenant fitting out their one-bedroom or two-bedroom apartment with a mono-split or bi-split. Average budget: €2,500 to €5,000. Constraints: agreement of the co-ownership, installation on the facade or on the roof, prior declaration of works if the outdoor unit changes the appearance of the building. We support these projects in our air conditioning installation in apartments in Paris service.
3. The global energy renovator
Third profile, the household carrying out a major renovation (insulation + ventilation + heating) and integrating reversible air conditioning in a bundle of works. This profile benefits from the accompanied MaPrimeRénov' pathway (single-gesture aid became ineligible from 1 September 2026 — see our decoding of the end of single-gesture aids). The overall budget is higher (€15,000 to €40,000) but the aids are significantly higher.
Top 5 brands in 2026
Of more than 46,000 users surveyed in May 2026 by ClubTravaux, the ranking remains dominated by the historic Japanese and French players:
| Rank | Brand | Market share | Strengths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daikin | 27% | Premium reversible, wide after-sales network, reliability |
| 2 | Mitsubishi Electric | 21% | Performance, MSZ range, hyper-inverter |
| 3 | Atlantic | 19% | French brand, 5-year parts warranty |
| 4 | Hitachi | 9% | Silent air-to-air heat pumps, good value for money |
| 5 | Toshiba | 5% | Haori range, compact design, connected |
The top three brands represent 67% of the French market. The top three stand out for the quality of their after-sales service, the availability of spare parts for 10 years (legal obligation), and the maturity of their connected applications. For a sustainable purchase, this is an essential criterion.
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Daikin, Mitsubishi and Atlantic also dominate the top of the reversible air-to-air heat pumps we install at Proclimo. We work directly with their Île-de-France distributors, which guarantees short lead times and competitive prices.
How much does an installation cost in 2026?
Average observed prices (including tax, installation included, equipment + labour, all of France):
| Configuration | 2026 average price | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Mono-split (1 room, 2.5 kW) | €1,600 | €900 to €2,800 |
| Bi-split (2 rooms) | €4,500 | €3,000 to €6,400 |
| Tri-split (3 rooms) | €5,800 | €3,500 to €8,900 |
| Quadri-split (4 rooms) | €7,500 | €5,000 to €11,450 |
The price differences are explained by: power (2.5 to 7 kW), performance (SEER ≥ 6.0 for the best models, SCOP ≥ 4.0), brand (premium vs entry-level), installation complexity (refrigerant line length, duct passage, installation height), and region (Île-de-France 10-15% more expensive than the provinces).
Impact on the electricity bill
The Hello Watt study published in June 2026 on 227 households that switched from electric heating to a reversible heat pump (replacing their radiators) shows an average 12% drop in the annual electricity bill, or about €200 per year for an average household. The winter (reversible heating) and summer (air conditioning) comfort more than compensates for the investment.
Nationwide, ADEME estimates that air conditioning now accounts for 6 to 8% of French residential electricity consumption in summer, compared with 2 to 3% in 2015. The summer consumption trajectory correlates with the expansion of the fleet: +3% per year on average since 2020. This is a key issue for balancing the electricity grid, which RTE partly manages with the new summer off-peak hours.
The challenge: keep up with demand without lowering quality
Lengthening installation lead times
With +42% in demand and only +8 to +10% more certified installers, installation lead times are lengthening: now count 3 to 6 weeks between signing the quote and commissioning, compared with 2 to 3 weeks in 2023. In high season (June to September), you often need to anticipate by 2 to 3 months. This is why we recommend to our customers to sign their quote in March-April for an installation before the first hot weather.
The shortage of HVAC technicians, the main bottleneck
The 2026 barometer confirms the tension on staffing: France has about 18,000 certified HVAC technicians to absorb 900,000 new installations per year. This is insufficient, and the shortage of qualified HVAC technicians remains the first factor in lead times and quality. To choose the right installer, systematically check: refrigerant capacity certification (category A1 after the 2025 reform), RGE certification, up-to-date decennial insurance, and verified customer reviews.
Frequently asked questions
Is France lagging behind on air conditioning? Yes, historically. But the catch-up has accelerated since 2020: 25% of dwellings equipped in 2026, compared with 14% in 2015. The trajectory leads to 50% in 2030-2035, on a par with current Italy and Spain.
Why such a leap in 2025-2026? Three converging factors: a succession of heatwaves, the technological maturity of reversible heat pumps, and 5.5% VAT voted in the 2026 finance law (awaiting an application decree). Not to mention the regulatory context: RGE reform of June 2026 and refrigerant certifications that secure the industry.
Will prices continue to rise? Yes, in the short term, under the effect of demand. In the medium term, the generalisation of European heat pumps (objective of the "1 million heat pumps per year" plan signed in May 2026) and increased competition should stabilise prices.
Should you rush to install? No rush, but do anticipate. Current aids (CEE, 5.5% VAT to come, "Heating Boost" prime for approved air-to-water heat pumps) are valid until the end of 2026. And a unit installed before the 2027 high season guarantees that you will enjoy it fully.
Anticipate your project with Proclimo
Are you planning to equip your home in 2026 or 2027? Now is the right time to make a decision: installation lead times are lengthening, certified installers are in demand, and current aids remain available. Proclimo operates in Île-de-France (Paris, Hauts-de-Seine, Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-de-Marne, Val-d'Oise, Yvelines, Essonne, Seine-et-Marne) for the installation, maintenance and repair of your air conditioning, with A1-certified HVAC technicians and a decennial guarantee on all installations. Request your personalised quote: contact Proclimo.
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